Re: Panini World Cup Album

OK, for all people who think that there s an equal distribution of stickers...time to destroy your childhood innocence.
And an excuse to use some mathematics here (it s early, I m dividing my attention between this post and the twins so I hope no mistakes ).
I m only using approximations to keep it simpler....

There are 640 stickers in total (1 to 638 + 00 + 000).

Ali needs 84. If the stickers follow a uniform distribution then the chance he doesn t have a random sticker is 84/640 (= 13.125%). Call this probability p.
[This is where I cheat, this isn t binominal, because after 1 sticker Ali s probability changes to 83/640 etc...]

I have 138 unique doubles. This is our n.
Call X = the amount of stickers Ali doesn t have.

The expectation E(X) = n x p.
So out of my 138 doubles Ali shouldn t have 138 x 84/640 = 18.1125 so about 18 stickers.

How many of Ali s wanted list do I have? Well, only 2 (202 and 204 to be precise).

The chances of only having 2 or less = 8.777 x 10^-7, or 0.0000008777.
Or to put it simpler, a 1 in 1,139,319 chance.

I ll stop here, but this is clear enough to show this isn t random...and sorry Ali, you can have the two if you want though .

How far are you in completing the album Retrieving? The mathematician is curious .

@Ali:

From the 84 stickers you needed last post, I now have the following double: 39, 74, 137, 202, 204, 240, 410, 451, 604.
If you want them just PM me. I ll try to keep a look out for others you need at school.

@Retrieving:

Interesting. About 320 from 360 you have are unique. I ll have to check my doubles to see how I m doing.
At the moment I need 193 from the 640. Luckily I have the 00 and 000 stickers this time around, took me ages last time .
No teams complete yet. I ll post some more info soon.

Is goed! Ik stuur ze dan z.s.m. op.

Down to 172 stickers needed. Getting closer to the magic 50 .

118 stickers left. Trying to get kids to swap now only 68 left till the magic send-away-for-the-last-50-mark .